World More Worried About Energy Crisis
‘Largest supply curtailment globe has faced’
While the U.S. focuses on silicon-related business activity and AI, the energy to support it is foundational. From an analysis, by request, of Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s national oil company and the oil crisis, a few key takeaways emerged that offer more facets of the crisis’ continuing impact. For one, the firm is the most valuable brand in Saudi Arabia, and right now—the world—reaching a $6.6 trillion valuation. A number of items are now more valuable too:
• Energy, generally, and oil and gas production, specifically;
• Back up infrastructure;
• Spare capacity;
• US exports; and
• Investment environment stability (and liquidity) to continue digitalization and development.
World Worried
It is useful to look at the energy crisis from the rest-of-the-world point of view. In a Bloomberg article of April 15th, they write:
“[the] International Monetary Fund and World Bank believe investors are underestimating the economic damage from the Iran war. Government officials and participants warn that the impact on the global economy is likely to get significantly worse before it gets better, even if peace was negotiated soon. The conflict will lead to structural change involving higher costs, longer trade routes, more geopolitical uncertainty and slower growth potential.
The U.S. market has been under-appreciating the impacts of the disrupted flows connected to energy. Aside from the U.S. exporting more crude oil and liquids plus LNG, a slight wrench could occur in the growth that supported the U.S. economy in most of 2025—the AI infrastructure and data center buildout. This will be critical to watch over the next many months. Today, Europe is reported to have six weeks of jet fuel. Other developing countries were already rationing.
Echoing the concern, at TCU’s Energy Symposium of April 15th a major U.S.-focused shale producer chief executive believes the crisis’ knock-on effects are more problematic than the market is communicating. With the blockade in place, cargos that were in route will reach destinations but there will be few behind that. This indicates shortages for those Gulf States’ barrels. U.S. producers can only pickup slack so fast and relative to refining capacity.
(See some early impacts are here including inflation and price scenarios.)
As noted by a Saudi energy expert at an energy symposium at the SMU Cox School April 10, the other risks are the cargoes of products normally transiting through the Strait such as :
• sulfur with 50-60% of the seaborne trade;
• ammonia 24-27%
• urea ~ 33% of global trade
• helium 30-38% (used in semiconductors)
Besides crude oil and gas, as LNG, liquified petroleum gas (LPG) is also affected. As of March and April, global helium supply is facing a major disruption, with approximately 30–38% of global production offline from Qatar’s infrastructure being offline. Helium is as a byproduct of LNG.
Slowing the AI push in the Middle East?
The Saudis will want to restore stability and continue diversifying their economy according to the Vision 2030 plan.